The arrival of Covid-19 has brought with it dramatic changes in food and drink purchase patterns. Shelf-stable food like pasta, rice and canned goods flew off the shelves. Immune system boosting ingredients were top of the shopping list. But which behaviours will stick and what are the longer term food industry trends to watch?
We spoke to consumers in 10 countries, as well as our own internal food and beverage experts to understand the global picture and the local nuances and trends in each market. We wanted to understand how people are eating and drinking in this new normal, and what implications this has for the future.
We’ve summarised the key global and local trends in this blog post but for the full findings, download the report: Understanding the Impact of Covid-19: Food Industry Trends for 2020 and Beyond.
Global food industry trends for 2020 and beyond
The pandemic has improved eating and drinking habits across the world
Over half (53%) of the consumers we spoke to told us that since the onset of the pandemic, what they eat and drink has changed for the better. Some countries like India and Vietnam have seen a big swing towards healthier diets, whereas others like the US, UK and Japan have been more consistent. Overall, very few people (just 6%) believe their diet has changed for the worse.
People are cooking more at home and they’re eating more fresh fruit and vegetables
With more time at home, and health high on the agenda, it’s unsurprising that half of consumers globally (51%) are now cooking more for themselves and their families. This trend is more prevalent in some Asian markets, such as India, China, Thailand and Vietnam, than it is in the US, UK or Japan. But even in this market, consumers have found an innovative workaround to sourcing home-cooked meals. Over the past few months, professional chef / dietician delivery services like Sharedine have boomed in Japan. This is where a personal chef will come to a customer’s house and cook a number of dishes from scratch that can be reheated over the coming days. The service even includes grocery delivery!
At a global level, people are also more conscious of what they eat, with a real focus on fresh produce. Half of consumers globally (51%) tell us they are eating more fresh fruit and vegetables. This is more significant than any other dietary changes, such as eating more grains and nuts (adopted by 29%) or eating more meat-free products or dairy and cheese (practiced by just 16% and 13% respectively).
Health-conscious consumers are looking to boost their immune systems and brands are responding
Even now long after the onset of the pandemic, immune-boosting solutions are still at the top of consumers’ shopping lists. Consumers in markets like India are looking to natural ingredients. But others, like those in Thailand and China are making use of a new range of RTD products that have sprung up to meet this need. The “water plus” category has boomed in Thailand, with brands such as Yanhee Vitamin Water, B’lue, VITADAY Vitamin Water and PH Plus 8.5 Alkaline Water coming to the fore. In China, product launches have included milk with immune globulin, Vitamin C fruit tea and Chinese jujube drinks.
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Understanding the impact of Covid-19: Food industry trends for 2020 and beyond
The arrival of Covid-19 brought with it dramatic changes in food and drink purchase patterns. Shelf-stable food like pasta, rice and canned goods flew off the shelves. Immune system boosting ingredients were top of the shopping list. But which behaviours will stick and what are the longer term trends to watch in food and drink?
Download nowWorries about the origin of food are one of the key food industry trends for 2020 and beyond
When asked which of the behaviours they’d adopted in the pandemic that they’d continue in future, being conscious of where the produce I consume originates from for safety / health reasons came out top. We see this reflected in consumer behaviour. Some people in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have moved away from visiting wet markets, opting instead for mini supermarkets or online solutions. In some markets, there are also significant groups of consumers that are opting to eat more meat-free products, perceived to be less prone to infection. This amounts to 32% of consumers in Vietnam, 28% in India and 23% in China. With these concerns top of mind for many consumers, it’s the brands that prioritise hygiene and safety that will come out on top. We’re already seeing some great examples of this happening, with the help of technology. One example is Haidilao. This hotpot restaurant in Beijing has installed smart robotic arms to prepare and deliver raw meat and fresh vegetables. It’s also introduced technology to track and dispose of food that has passed its expiry date.
Supporting local is a key consideration for many consumers
Across the world people are doing their bit to keep local food and beverage brands afloat. This looks set to continue in future. When asked which of the behaviours they’d adopted in the pandemic that they’d continue, supporting local produce and food and beverage brands came out second highest.
In Japan, this trend has manifested itself in the 応援消費 (Consume To Support) movement. This initiative that went viral, ranking first amongst the top 10 consumer trends in the first half of 2020 according to Rakuten, an online retail giant and Nikkei, a flagship financial newspaper. The term was first created and gained popularity in 2011 when a 3.11 earthquake shook the eastern part of Japan and people showed their support through making purchases from the damaged areas. In the pandemic, we saw a resurgence of this. Consumers purchased from the food and beverage brands hardest hit – farms, manufacturers and restaurants with excess stock – thanks to innovative apps like Pocket Marche and TABETE.
We’ve seen similar movements in other markets. In Indonesia #belidariteman (buy from a friend) was promoted by the Association of Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs (HIPMI) encouraging people to support local. In the Philippines, the traditional value of “Bayanihan” which translates as “spirit of communal unity” has seen Filipinos shopping from local food and beverage brands in these difficult times.
With local being an important purchase consideration for consumers both now and in the future, brands will do well to emphasize their heritage and role in the community going forwards.
Consumers are looking to food and drink as escapism to create occasions at home
As people spend more time at home, there’s a real opportunity for brands to help consumers create special occasions with their loved ones through the power of food and drink. This could be through providing inspiration for at-home events and special recipes for consumers to cook themselves. It could also be achieved by creating products, services and experiences that can be delivered at home. There are some great examples of this emerging around the world. In Singapore, bar and restaurant, Tippling Club, is offering virtual cook-along sessions with its in-house chef. In Hong Kong, Café Earl Grey is delivering restaurant signatures with simple instructions to cook and assemble at home. These dishes are accompanied by an extensive selection of curated wines and bottled cocktails. And in the Philippines, restaurants are delivering uncooked ingredients so that people can cook their favourite dishes at home.
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Online shopping is on the rise but this is playing out differently in different markets
Food and beverage brands have had to innovate to survive in the wake of local restrictions. Online has played a critical role in this transformation. Consumers across markets have experienced the benefits of online shopping first hand, accelerating its growth. But this has played out differently in different markets. In Vietnam, ghost kitchens have been set up to meet the growing demand for meal delivery. In Indonesia, a jastip service allows consumers to make and receive orders from local wet markets via WhatsApp. And in the UK, where online grocery is more well established, growing numbers of older customers are moving their grocery shopping online. In 2019, just 8% of over 55s in the UK had bought food and essentials online. This figure has now soared to 25% according to the How Britain Shops Online report.
Country specific food industry trends
Food industry trends in the UK
One of the key global trends we see in the UK is the shift towards supporting local. Office workers in the UK have been encouraged to work from home for the majority of 2020, meaning that food and drink spend has been concentrated closer to home – and we expect to see this continue as working patterns shift as a result of the pandemic. According to Mastercard data, it’s been people shopping and eating out locally, rather than spending money in Central London, that has driven the economic recovery in London. Other key trends in this market include the growing number of silver surfers that are embracing to online grocery shopping as mentioned above and rise of at-home food and drink occasions. As in other markets, brands are anticipating consumers will spend more time at home, and catering to this with services such as online cooking classes and delivery collaborations.
Food industry trends in the US
We expect to see consumers continuing to eat and drink more at home in the US too, as many office workers continue to remotely, and city dwellers flee to the suburbs. Whilst consumers are enjoying cooking at home and planning to do more of it in future, they’re are also ordering more takeout, and looking to meal kit companies for ease and convenience. Attitudes towards health in the US depart from the global trend. Whilst 53% of consumers globally tell us that what they eat or drink has changed for the better, in America only 25% think this is the case. In the US, consumers are viewing health more holistically. Whilst some are looking to food and drink to support physical health, others are using food as a tool to support their mental health, with two thirds of Americans eating more comfort food than before.
Food industry trends in Singapore
Global trends such as the rise of online shopping and a growing focus on health and wellness are reflected in Singapore. In fact, an AIA survey conducted prior to Phase Two of safe reopening found that Singaporeans are allocating the highest portion of their expenses on healthier meal choices. One trend that is more specific to Singapore is the growing importance of sustainability. When it comes to sustainability efforts, Singapore falls behind many other nations in terms of recycling, plastic-use reduction, and food wastage reduction, and this has come into sharper focus as a result of the pandemic, alongside more recent government efforts to achieve a Zero Waste Singapore. In response, we’re starting to see the rise of more sustainable packaging, “ugly” produce and bulk food stores.
Food industry trends in Vietnam
Vietnam has seen big changes in the channels people use for shopping. Online meal delivery has boomed as restaurants have pivoted, and ever more Vietnamese consumers are turning to the mini supermarket, as worries about food safety and origin come to the fore. In line with this, organic food is also growing in popularity, although high prices mean that at present this trend is confined to the middle class.
Food industry trends in China
In China and Hong Kong, global trends around health and eating at home are particularly important, with 86% of Chinese respondents acknowledging their desire to eat at home even after the pandemic ends according to Nielsen. Concerns about food safety are also front of mind, and in response we’re seeing a growing trend towards automation and contactless processes in manufacturing and distribution.
Food industry trends in Thailand
As in Vietnam, meal delivery in Thailand has boomed, accelerating the adoption of online and mobile banking and contactless payment methods. The global trend towards an increasing emphasis on health is evident in Thailand, too with 71% cooking more for themselves and their families and 62% consuming more fresh fruit and vegetables. Many Thai consumers are also looking towards beverages as a way of looking after their health. Drinks containing Vitamin C have seen 47% growth compared
to last year.
Food industry trends in India
Like their counterparts in Thailand, Indian consumers are looking for immune boosting products, but many of the specific trends we see playing out in this market are driven by food safety concerns. As mentioned previously, a significant number of Indian consumers are eating more meat-free food due to worries about infection, and they’re also buying more packaged food. Against this backdrop, street food vendors have had to pivot, elevating their offering, leading to the emergence of gourmet street food.
Food industry trends in Japan
As mentioned above Japanese consumers have been quick to support local brands through the 応援消費 (Consume To Support) movement. This is a trend that we believe will persist in Japan, albeit not as prominently as it does on a global scale. Our research shows that 1 in 4 consumers in the country say they will be more conscious of supporting local produce and food and beverage brands in future, compared to 4 in 10 globally. One emerging trend that is quite specific to Japan is the move towards stocking up on food. In most countries this behaviour peaked at the height of the pandemic and has since subsided but in Japan 41% of consumers plan to ‘stock up’ on essentials rather than buying day-to-day in future and 35% are intending to buy more frozen or tinned produce. This can be explained by looking at the specific experience of the Japanese people. In response to natural disasters like earthquakes, typhoons, flooding and landslides, Japanese consumers are used to having to stock up.
Food industry trends in the Philippines
We see this trend towards bulk buying emerging in the Philippines too, where 48% of consumers say they plan to ‘stock up’ on essentials instead of buying day-to-day. Global trends around eating more healthily are also important in the Philippines, which is significant given that the traditional Filipino diet is higher in total fat, saturated fat, and cholesterol than most Asian diets.
Food industry trends in Indonesia
Trends in Indonesia closely mirror those seen globally. There’s been an uptick in online grocery shopping, with a large proportion of Indonesian grocery shoppers (59%) having used e-commerce sites for this purpose according to a Snapcart survey carried out in May. People have also started to adopt online shopping in new categories, such as OTC, multivitamins / supplements, herbal products, and even RX drugs. Cooking more at home, and supporting local food and drink businesses are also key trends in this market.
To learn more about the food industry trends in each market, download the full report – it’s packed full of facts, stats and examples from each country. Alternatively, if you need further support in understanding changing consumer behaviour in your market, please get in touch with us. We have a wealth of experience in food and beverage, having worked with the likes of Mars, Unilever and Arla, and would be happy to share our expertise.
The polls have failed again. The result of the 2020 US Presidential election has not even been confirmed, and there are various news sources claiming that the polling companies have got it all wrong, again. Polls predicted that Biden would win various states comfortably. They either picked the wrong winner, or the race was far, far closer than the polls suggested. It was not supposed to be like this. After the 2016 disasters of Brexit and Trump winning defied the predictions from polling companies – there was supposed to be change – more accuracy in how data is collected and norms calculated.
Political polling is perhaps one of the more visible uses of market research for the average consumer. Polling is a subset of market research and there is a danger that market research as an industry receives negative association from yet another public failing. The Atlantic has published an interesting piece on the ‘disaster’ of the polls and highlights 2 potential arguments to the polls results – that is also the argument for market research as a whole:
“First, many pollsters insist that their polls are snapshots, not predictors. If their snapshots are so far off, though, where were they aiming the lens? Why bother?”
“Second, the analysts will protest that they’re only as good as the polls, but who cares? Whatever the instructions on the bottle, the public uses opinion polls to try to understand what happens. If the polls and their analysts don’t offer the service that customers are seeking, they’re doomed.”
This is similar to the argument that I have heard a few times from senior stakeholders in large companies. “Steve Jobs didn’t use research, why do we need a research company”?
Market research is critical in the uncertain world we live in now. And the mistake that people are making when commenting on the accuracy of the polls, is the same mistake that people make in business. The expectation that there is one data point or one piece of research that will predict the future.
Looking back at the polls, whether a particular result has 51% Biden, or 49%, is not as important as understanding that there is a clear divide. Digging down to uncover the reason for the divide and looking for ideas as to how to change perceptions is what should be most meaningful for anyone looking to illicit change.
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Whilst commenting on the Brexit result (and the failure of the polls) in 2016, I commented that research should be used for Inspiration, Measurement or Predictions – but not by asking for a single score! Instead, market research should be looked at the same way that you have a golf coach, or a piano tutor. You are looking to improve your skills over a period of time, by having someone provide you with the ideas and confidence to get better. Market research, at its best, draws upon multiple sources. Some primary, some secondary, some direct, some passive. What you need is the understanding of what is going on – not just a snapshot.
In the corporate world, marketing has traditionally been the function that ‘owns’ the researchers. How well CMOs can ensure their products and services are relevant to their customer justifies the work they are doing. The future of market research needs to look more holistically. Marketeers should look to understand trends that are happening. This could mean getting insights from other industries or other markets. Market research is an ever changing, but every relevant industry. Right now, marketeers and decision makers can look at mobile applications, AI analyzed digital diaries, big data and text analytics to get an insight into consumer needs and habits. Understanding consumers has never had as many possibilities as it does today. The skill of the researcher, and the goal of any research agency is to bring together the best people, with the best tools, to advance an idea or to provide confidence.
Understanding the underlying situation is critical for decision makers to be able to create a program of change. Whoever wins the US election, the hope is that they understand the patterns and the needs of the nation to create change. For the market research industry – the focus must be on showcasing the story of change – and encouraging all to follow.
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As a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns, education institutions across the globe have faced a myriad of challenges, including the move to distance learning and finding new ways to support pupils. Students have also had to adapt with the support of an in-person learning environment
Now that some educational institutions are emerging from the pandemic, it will be important not just to address short term needs but also to identify innovations that can be adopted to improve student learning in the long run.
This piece explores three key challenges to address in the short term but also considers the long-term implications of what these new changes may bring. The 3 themes we’ll be looking at are:
- The role of a “classroom” and going beyond physical spaces
- Rethinking the way we share knowledge
- Addressing current inequalities and what educators can do to ensure the future success of students
Where is the classroom?
Short-term trends
As governments and educational institutions make decisions on when and how to reopen schools, health and safety is naturally front of mind. Some schools have opened with strict checking procedures in place. In Shanghai, for instance, students are required to enter the school building via a thermal scanner and there are multiple posters in place highlighting the measures in place to tackle coronavirus. In other schools, remote learning is still continuing as only limited numbers of pupils return. Schools in New South Wales, Australia, for example, have re-opened but are only allowing students to attend one day a week on a staggered basis. Whatever the approach, the priority continues to be safeguarding people’s wellbeing and schools will observe and learn from countries that are practicing safe re-opening procedures.
Long-term trends
However, the COVID crisis has also demonstrated that classrooms are not the only places where education can take place. The pandemic has highlighted that learning can take place at any time, anywhere and in any way. It’s clear that the opportunities offered by digital capabilities will go well beyond its temporarily use during the crisis.
Technology can enable teachers and students to access massive amounts of digital resources, most of which are free to use. Examples from other countries have also shown that the delivery of information through various means – TV, online, mobile – can work to help engage students. What’s more, AI and digital technology are now able to capture data to measure students’ progress so that learning can be adjusted based on ongoing assessments rather than through high stakes exams.
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Rethinking Knowledge Sharing
Short-term trends
Just as students are adjusting to distance learning, most teachers are also new to teaching online and have had to quickly adapt their lessons to an online format that keeps pupils engaged.
But teachers don’t just need the technological tools to facilitate online learning. They need resources to help enhance their teaching practice. A number of initiatives have sprung up around the world to facilitate this. In South Korea, the Education and Research Information Service offers an online platform to facilitate the sharing of materials created by teachers and in the United Arab Emirates, the Ministry of Education invited over 40,000 teachers to take part in a ‘Be an online tutor in 24 hours’ course. Global organizations such as the Khan Academy, TEDed, Google Arts & Culture are also continually providing relevant education resources for students and teachers.
Long-term trends
In the long-term, we may see a new form of teaching emerging. In a world where students can access to knowledge through a few clicks, educators will need to review and potentially redefine their role in the classroom.
The emphasis should be not only on the delivery of content but also on generating engagement. Educators need to learn to create a positive experience within a digital context – one that is more interactive and engaging. One organisation leading the way on this is Singapore’s SIT University, which has created training materials for lecturers to provide online learning. The topics covered how to create narrated slides, how to run effective live streaming classes, how to design alternative assessments, and the use of online proctoring tools for assessments.
Addressing current inequalities and what educators can do to ensure the future success of students
Short-term trends
While technology has helped many students continue their education at home, data from UNESCO has found that in other ways, it has exacerbated the digital divide. Half of all students do not have access to a computer and more than 40% have no internet access at home.
Students living in rural areas, low-income households, students with special needs and those living in less developed areas face issues with a lack of resources including not having the technology needed for remote learning.
Governments, private companies, and educational institutions need to be able to work in partnership to ensure that needs of all students are met. Success stories from around the world can provide inspiration. In France, the University of Strasbourg identified students whose lack of resources jeopardised their ability to continue their education, setting up an Emergency Fund and distributing more than a hundred computers to students in need. China offered mobile data packages, telecom subsidies and repurposed some of the state-run television channel to air lesson plans for K–12 education in remote regions. Italy put together an €85 million Euro package to support distance learning for 8.5 million students and improve connectivity in isolated areas.
Long-term trends
While COVID-19 has fast-tracked the need to acquire digital skills, we also cannot forget the education students will need to prepare them for the workplace of the future.
As a result of the pandemic, the demand for certain jobs and specialities will decline, whilst otherareas come to the fore. Educational institutions need to be flexible enough to adapt their curriculum and resources to meet students’ and workforces’ changing needs.
There will continue to be a need to train people in emerging digital skills but learners will also need “non-automatable” skills. According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey, “a wide range of occupations will require a higher degree of cognitive abilities — such as creativity, logical reasoning and problem sensitivity — as part of their core skill set.” Institutions who more readily recognise and adapt their curriculum and resources to meet these needs are more likely to thrive moving forwards.
The automotive industry has been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. Cars have lain dormant in driveways for months as a result of lockdowns across the world, and economic shutdowns hit supply chains, with reports of some manufacturers even resorting to flying parts across the world in suitcases.
But as consumers emerge into a ‘new normal’, what does this mean for the automotive industry? What are the trends to watch – both in the short and the long-term?
In this article, our auto experts across the UK, Thailand and Indonesia, Bianca Abulafia, Digo Alanda and Kajornkiat Kiatsunthorn explore 3 key areas:
- Changing purchase patterns
- The future of electric
- The digital path to purchase
Changing purchase patterns
Short term
In the short-term, we expect to see growth in the second hand and luxury end of the market especially.
The pandemic has resulted in a renewed focus on the car as hygiene concerns have come to the fore. This has resulted in those that have previously shunned car ownership such as urbanites and young people re-evaluating their stance. In the US, a cars.com study showed that 20% of people who don’t own a car are thinking of buying one, and this figure rises when we hone in on young people. A recent global Capgemini survey of under 35s shows that 45% are considering buying a car and this is highest in countries that have been hardest hit by the pandemic.
We have talked about the emergence of “revenge buying” in other sectors, and we expect this to manifest in the automotive industry within the second-hand market as a more affordable option for younger buyers. “Revenge buying” is also relevant at the luxury end of the market. As a result of being able to save, the budget of some affluent buyers has increased, meaning that they’re now able to trade up. Volvo’s Chief Executive notes this has happened in China, where the company has seen a 20% increase in sales compared to 2019. “People are really tired of sitting at home locked and they really want to go out and buy.” Outside of this, we expect sales to suffer, with existing car owners putting off purchases in the midst of economic instability.
Long-term
Looking at the long-term impact, it will take some time until car sales return to pre-COVID levels. An ING report, looks back to the 2008 financial crisis for indicators, highlighting that it took 11 months for vehicle sales to recover in this instance. But if we consider that this pandemic has brought lifestyle and behavioural changes, in addition to economic instability, it’s much harder to predict.
In the long-term, will we see a permanent shift towards home working that encourages people to move out of urban centres, necessitating the need for a car? Will increased domestic tourism result in a desire to have access to a car for longer trips – ushering in an opportunity for shared ownership of vehicles? The automotive industry doesn’t exist in a vacuum and it will be vital for auto manufacturers to observe the broad trends to understand where they can play a role.
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The digital path to purchase
Short-term
Car manufacturers have had to rapidly adapt to a new sales environment, as they seek to comply with social distancing measures and meet the needs of the more cautious shopper. Capgemini’s COVID-19 and The Automotive Consumer report indicates that 46% of consumers want to minimise visits to dealerships to compare offers, instead preferring to do this online. We’ve seen lots of innovative responses to this. In China, for instance, Volkswagen has trained 70,000 employees to communicate with customers online, even livestreaming from dealerships via TikTok and Kuaishou.
Long-term
In the long-term, we only expect this to continue. The impact of coronavirus has acted as a catalyst for the digital transformation of many industries, sparking changes in consumer behaviour that were thought to take years. Automotive will be no exception as people seek the convenience that they’re experiencing in their interactions with other brands and industries. This will be particularly important in the research phase but we believe it will also extend to online purchase and home delivery, with a recent Think with Google survey finding that 18% of people would buy a vehicle sooner if there was an online purchase option. The desire for convenience could also impact the after sales experience with servicing being carried out at home.
The future of electric
Short-term
In the immediate term, economic instability, plus the appeal of lower oil prices, could dissuade car buyers from making the move to electric. However, we don’t expect this to last long, with any savings from oil prices likely to be temporary, and not significant enough in the long-term to fundamentally influence decisions.
One area to watch is other electric transportation options beyond the car – such as scooters and bikes. As people avoid public transport and seek other routes around the city, governments are having to radically rethink how they can support this. The UK has announced that improvements in cycling infrastructure and trials to allow rented e-scooters on the streets have been fast-tracked, which could encourage people to start exploring electric bikes and scooters as alternative options for commuting. Increased familiarity with electric powered means of transportation could result in a greater adoption of motorbikes or cars.
Long-term
When we look at the long-term view, we don’t expect the shift towards electric to be significantly impacted. From the canals in Venice being clear enough to see the fish to Nasa satellite images showing the dramatic drop into pollution levels in China, the upsides of the lockdown on the environment have been well documented – with many consumers acknowledging benefits of this on their quality of life.
This could influence purchase behaviours in the longer term, with consumers wanting to do their bit for the environment at the point at which economic conditions become more favourable for them to do so. But more significantly, changing consumer sentiment towards the environment is also likely to increase pressure on governments to bolster schemes to incentivise electric car ownership, making them a more financially attractive proposition to car buyers. In fact, this is something that has already happened in China in the wake of the pandemic, with some cities announcing subsidies for new electric vehicles, and others upping their investment in the associated infrastructure.
We also shouldn’t forget the status symbol factor, particularly in the luxury segment. Our research has shown that owning an electric car represents a new way to demonstrate wealth and status, and we don’t see this diminishing any time soon.
When we look the impact of COVID-19 on the media industry it’s a mixed picture. Whilst some areas, like video streaming services, have thrived as a result of increased time at home, others have come to a complete standstill, such as OOH advertising and cinema. But which trends in media will persist?
In this article we explore 3 key areas of the media landscape:
- Linear TV
- Streaming services
- Advertising
The role of linear TV
Short-term changes
As people have been forced to spend time at home and routines have been upended, viewing of linear television has enjoyed a resurgence. According to the BBC, viewers were watching 44% more linear channels in May compared to this time last year, rising to 67% for young people. A trend that flies in the face of pre-pandemic viewing behaviour.
The rise of linear television in this period should really come as no surprise. It’s allowing for shared moments at a time when human connection is in short supply. Thinkbox observed a 30% increase in shared viewing in this period.
Content preferences have also shifted, reflecting the pandemic situation, with programmes that allow for nostalgia and escapism proving popular with viewers.
Long-term trends
We expect the rise of linear TV to be short-lived. As a direct response to the lockdown, it’s unlikely that this behaviour will persist as the pandemic subsides. As economies reopen, and consumers given more freedom to socialise, we expect to see linear TV consumption patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, as the long-term trends we’ve seen towards VOD and SVOD continuing.
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Streaming
Short-term changes
Streaming providers have been one of few beneficiaries of the COVID-19 crisis. With more time on their hands at home, people are turning to paid online streaming services – and some for the very first time. A survey for the Consumer Technology Association carried out in March found that 26% of US consumers are using video streaming services for the first time. A combination of new users like these, and others that have added to their existing subscriptions are creating big returns for streaming giants. In the first quarter, Netflix more than doubled the number of new subscribers it had expected. Disney Plus is another success story. Just 8 months after launch, it has over 54 million subscribers globally. This puts it in touching distance of its 2024 target, a whole 4 years early.
Medium and long term
In the long-term, it’s difficult to predict exactly how streaming will fare. One school of thought is that as the economic impact of the crisis hits consumers will re-evaluate their discretionary spending, and cut back, which could see subscriber numbers fall, particularly amongst those with multiple subscriptions.
Others argue that as consumers tighten the purse strings, they’ll be scaling back on more significant purchases. This could mean that spend on streaming services will be protected as a worthwhile investment, particularly if the focus on the home remains, with working from home continuing in the long term.
One trend that we expect to remain is the emphasis on shared viewing on demand. We’ve seen streaming providers innovating to meet this need with features like Netflix Party, that allow users in different locations to synchronise playback and communicate via a group chat. Meeting the desire for shared experiences but enabling different audiences in one household to watch what they like, we see this trend being important in future.
Another development to watch out in the medium-term is the future of film. During the pandemic Universal Pictures made some of its film releases available on demand on Comcast, Sky, Apple and Amazon for a one-off fee. With the emphasis on value for money and continued social distancing, will this be an attractive option to consumers in the medium, and a way to offset lost revenues from cinemas?
Advertising
Short term
The drop in advertising spending during the pandemic has been well documented. According to a report from Publicis, Q1 ad spend was down 15% in China and 9% across Europe, as companies sought to cut costs and postpone campaigns. And with this continuing in Q2 and into the second half of the year, the World Federation of Advertisers predicting a 31% decrease in investments across 2020.
In response to the pandemic the tone of ads has changed too, with many brands emphasising their contribution to the relief effort or how they’re supporting customers in this difficult time. In the short-term, we can’t expect an immediate return to pre-pandemic marketing strategies. Our recent research Brands Exposed research, with 4,000 consumers across 10 countries found that levels of worry around the pandemic influence how consumers respond to ads, with overt sales messaging being rejected by those that are most worried, in favour of more reassuring advertising. This indicates that in the short-term, brands will need to make a concerted effort to understand the sentiment of their customer base and position their ads accordingly.
Medium to long-term
Advertising has always had to shift in response to behavioural changes, and this will be no exception. A recent Goldman Sachs report predicts that “the crisis will only accelerate the secular shift in advertising budgets towards digital.”
In the medium and long-term, we expect to see brands funnelling more money into digital advertising, reflecting the increase in time that consumers are spending on digital channels. Social media usage is up 21% globally. It’s likely that advertisers will also look to move ad spend towards ad supported streaming services, at the expense of TV.
In the long-run, we also expect to brands continuing to place a sustained importance on responsibility and honesty, in response to rising consumer expectations, as suggested by our Brands Exposed research.
Over the past few months, COVID-19 has had a significant impact on how we think and behave when it comes to food and beverage (F&B). When lockdowns were implemented in countries around the world, non-essential retailers were closed, dining-in was prohibited, and supply chains were tested. As a result, buying behaviours and attitudes have changed and F&B retailers are having to respond rapidly. Those that are able to act quickly will be able to emerge triumphant past the crisis, with many new strategies remaining relevant even after the pandemic.
As countries are opening up, a common question among businesses is ‘what next?’ Governments around the world are trialing different measures to reopen the market, while trying to minimize the likelihood of a second wave of mass infections. Businesses are on one hand rapidly trying to adapt to the latest governmental policies, and on the other, thinking about how they should change to cater to a marketplace that in some ways looks very different. We’ll explore 3 key trends, with our thoughts on what is likely to stay post-COVID when it comes to F&B:
- Consumer behavioural changes
- Business adaptability
- Unfulfilled consumer needs
‘Stay home projects’: behavioural and purchasing patterns arising out of having to eat at home
Short term changes
While purchases of luxury products have largely decreased during the pandemic, there was a sharp rise in everyday products. With the closure of physical stores, and restaurants doing takeaway only, more people embarked on different ‘stay home projects’, experimenting with homemade recipes.
According to social listening data from Circus Social, people in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia ended up making more homemade snacks during this period. In China, the sale of egg whisks on online retailer Tmall increased five-fold year on year. In Singapore, essential baking ingredients such as yeast and baking soda were wiped off the shelves in most supermarkets during the first month of the Circuit Breaker, and many consumers looking for alternatives online. This shift has had a huge impact on supermarkets and grocery retailers, forcing them to look for alternative sources of supply and diversifying their supply chain strategy.
The surge in interest in ‘stay home projects’ has also led to a dramatic increase in the viewership of inspiration channels as well as recipe searches, with Instagram-worthy home café recipes trending on social media shortly after they were posted. This presented opportunities for brands to think about showcasing their products through strategic product placements on these channels. This may not be a novel strategy, but it has become highly relevant given the larger share of eyeballs on these channels during this period. In addition, we see F&B brands offering home cooking meal kits, riding on the wave of ‘stay home projects’ and engaging with partners to showcase the ease of using these meal kits online.
Long term trends
We believe that many of these trends will persist even after lockdown. More people, including newbies in the kitchen, have found a love for cooking and baking, while homecooked meals have also brought many families closer together. With the increased appreciation towards ‘home projects’, we are expecting more people to cook at home than in pre-COVID times.
Improving e-commerce channels and offline-to-online services will be also important to meet the needs of consumers in the future. F&B retailers will need to up their e-commerce game. While brick and mortar stores will still remain relevant in the post-pandemic world, this period has shown the importance of having a strong e-commerce presence and robust supply chain. Consumers will become more used to shopping for groceries online, especially for products that they cannot typically find in the brick-and-mortar stores. If F&B brands want to extend their reach to a wider audience through e-commerce, the time to do so is now.
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Adaptability: the virus has become the catalyst for tech and sales model evolution for F&B retailers
Short term changes
With every crisis, there is opportunity. COVID-19 has accelerated the evolution of the food retail space, and retailers are adapting in order to realign with the shift in purchasing priorities and new lifestyles.
When bubble tea stores were mandated to close during the Circuit Breaker in Singapore, some partnered other restaurants to continue their sales. Some cafes offered coffee subscription plans for the caffeine-deprived, and others introduced ‘Circuit Breaker meals’ to go along with their drinks. Restaurants that were limited by physical space, or located in less accessible areas, are now able to be on a more level playing field with other restaurants, as long as they have presence online and support home deliveries.
For some brands, the pandemic had a positive impact on their business as they discovered new opportunities online. More consumers got to know some establishments through social media and review sites, meaning that these brands are now able to reach more customers than ever before. However, being able to realise these positive outcomes depended on how fast retailers could adapt to the F&B landscape in lockdown. Whilst some partnered with established food delivery apps such as GrabFood or Deliveroo, others drew on their own staff for deliveries and adopted alternative ways of ordering, such as using SMS/WhatsApp, Instagram messages, or their own websites. During lockdown, consumers were more tolerant of the usability of the platform – instead being able to demonstrate that you were adapting quickly to meet consumer needs was more important.
Long term trends
In the long run, restaurants need to reassess the competitive landscape in order to continue to stand out post-pandemic. Every aspect of the typical sales funnel, such as brand awareness, consideration, and trial, would have shifted due to the purchase behavioral changes during the stay home period. Previously unknown brands may have gained popularity as they reached more consumers’ homes. Consumers will also have different assessment standards for restaurants post-COVID, such as hygiene standards. Retailers therefore need to reconsider their USPs to stand out amongst new competitors in the market.
Unfulfilled need: starving for experiences – an area brands can focus on during and post COVID
Short term changes
As the pandemic subsides, will restaurants still retain their delivery model? Yes and no. Less popular food places, and those restricted by physical location or the space required for social distancing may continue to improve their online platforms to expand their reach through deliveries. But, high-end restaurants and cafes may not. While taste is a critical component of the F&B experience, it has to go in hand with the service, the ambience, and even the company while dining in. Psychological research has also shown that the sense of taste plays only a small role in the whole dining experience. It is a multisensorial experience, which can be best presented in the curated setting of a restaurant, with its choice of plating, lighting, background music, and interior design.
Even though there are do-it-yourself packs for bubble tea or cocktails, for most the ambience of eating or drinking out is unbeatable, so F&B retailers will need to consider how they deliver the experiential aspect, whilst social distancing continues, in order to differentiate from other brands.
Medium to long term trends
Post pandemic, consumers who have been starved of in-restaurant F&B experiences will be hungry for these – and may not mind paying a premium. How can F&B retailers tap into this need while keeping in mind the greater expectations for hygiene standards?
Against, this backdrop, there’s an opportunity for F&B outlets to increase and monitise service personalisation. Having more attentive service, customisable menus and dishes, or even food that can ‘interact’ with the diner – basically things that cannot be recreated at home – can be considered by F&B retailers.
If you are anything like me, amidst the coronavirus and the global lockdown (even as some markets like Vietnam and Vienna are slowly returning to ‘normal’), you would be doing one of 3 things:
- Staying at home and minimizing social contact
- Trying to make home-based working happen while balancing all kinds of other personal life commitments
- Try to keep things light-hearted by looking at memes
While we all know that going back in time is not (yet) possible, brands can certainly try to move things forward by thinking about what they CAN do with the rest of the year. Dealing with uncertainty requires strategy and guidance, as detailed by our MD Phil Steggals in his recent article. That said, where do brands find guidance?
We at Kadence are big advocates of brands creating their own futures, rather than try to predict it. Earlier in the year, before the whole pandemic went global, we brought together trend watching experts from across our global boutique to identify four key trends that we believe will define the next 12 months, inspiring innovation across Asia, the US and Europe, that we outlined in this report.
While it may be still early in the year to review our own work (spoiler alert: we’re on the money!), we certainly think our identified trends are definitely relevant to the current times, and can guide brands to think about the rest of the year (and even beyond!)
First things first, a quick recap of the 4 trends:
- The shift towards 360-degree wellness
- The move from brand purpose to purposeful design
- Consumers left craving connection
- Personalisation reaching a new frontier as it moves offline
The shift towards 360-degree wellness: Trend vs. Manifestations
One of our key trends to watch for 2020 was the shift in how consumers are thinking about their wellbeing. We’re seeing consumers moving away from focusing purely on physical health and appearance, to now recognising the importance of their mental health too.
As an article discussing mental health issues in a recently re-opened Wuhan shows, this trend is definitely a strong one: Along with the countless new online fitness platforms that have sprung up over the past 6 weeks, the conversation is increasingly steering towards how people staying at home needs to pay attention to their mental health too. Already there are reports about how anxiety over job losses is impacting the American population, while closer to home, Singapore has decided to keep allied health services, such as psychology and social work, open because they are defined as ‘essential services’. Dealing with a global situation requires both physical and psychological strength, which is what this trend is all about.
What can my brand do with this in the #newnormal?
Regardless the industry you are in or the product/service that you offer, highlighting a mental benefit or creating one (within credible limits) will definitely benefit your brand’s standing with consumers, even after the situation improves – this trend is here to stay.
From brand purpose to purposeful design: Trend vs. Manifestations
Brand purpose is undoubtably one of the big trends of the past few years. We’ve seen ads against toxic masculinity, deforestation and discrimination, as brands have tried to convince consumers that they share their values and have a higher purpose than simply selling products. And with research from Havas Media showing that meaningful brands outperform the stock market by 134%, it’s easy to see why so many brands were quick to adopt this strategy.
But we’re starting to see a shift. As consumers begin calling these campaigns out for being all-talk and no action, companies are realising the need to move beyond surface-level brand purpose and to start embracing what we refer to as purposeful design, creating products and services which allow consumers to make the world a better place.
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There are numerous examples in this space that demonstrate how many big global brands actually ‘get’ it, and have quickly sprung into action in this global crisis: from Louis Vuitton (along with many other high-end luxury brands) producing pertinent medical supplies to Singapore gaming brand Razer pivoting from its core business to produce face masks, these show brands taking action on their beliefs, which can in turn inspire consumers to come forward and do their part as well.
What can my brand do with this in the #newnormal?
We want to believe that it should not take an international calamity for brands to be #woke and realize that ‘purposeful design’ should be at the heart of their operations from here on out. To be more specific, innovation in this space can fall into two categories – products and services which enables people to make a positive impact to the causes they care about and those which enable people to reduce their impact on the world around them. Regardless the product/service, is there a way that your brand can remain relevant in the #newnormal, and satisfy consumers increasing need for being better versions of themselves?
Consumers are left craving connection: Trend vs. Manifestations
This trend we identified focuses on consumers craving connection and a sense of belonging, in an increasingly divided and lonely world. People are now single for longer, meaning that more people are living alone, particularly in urban centres. A Washington Post wrote about how, in Japan, it’s predicted that 40% of households will be single person households by 2040. This trend is echoed in the West – in the US, half of young people aged 18 – 35 say they don’t have a steady romantic partner.
With global lockdowns in place, the way we work and socialize has been forcibly brought into the online world. Zoom meetings are becoming so frequent for work that ‘zoom fatigue’ is a real phenomenon, while social interactions online are a poor compromise because they literally lack the physicality that’s so much of a fundamental human need. These examples show how technological developments, hailed for their power to bring people together, have not always brought positive change, and are essentially stop-gap solutions for quality connections.
That said, though, connections made during this period inevitably become more ‘intimate’ as well (whether intended or not): bedrooms are shown to colleagues as background in work calls, while ‘bring your kid to work’ takes the reverse route because the child is very likely going to pop into the video camera during a conference session anytime. Even ‘live’ shows and music performances take on a ‘closer’ tonality as viewers are now given the chance to peep into a celebrity’s home! All these point to the possibility that consumers will demand not just more, but also better, connections in the post-COVID future.
What can my brand do with this in the #newnormal?
While there are experts who still feel that brands can still meaningfully enhance their customer experience digitally during the crisis, we would propose looking ahead and think about ‘connection’ in the broadest sense of the term, and see how both your brand can put that front and centre. This is not about ‘omnichannel’ or ‘O2O’; this is interrogating what kinds of meaningful connection your offering can provide your customers, as this pandemic leaves us with the realization that effective, rather than efficient, interactions are what they really crave.
Personalisation reaches a new frontier as it moves offline: Trend vs. Manifestations
We predicted that 2020 would see personalisation reach a new frontier as it increasingly starts to occupy offline, as well as online spaces, thanks to the proliferation of new technology.
We already see brands tapping into location and health data from smartphones and wearables to provide personalised products, services and marketing campaigns to consumers on the go. But the rise of facial recognition, and its integration into smart home technology, will take this to another level, making personalisation part of our homes, our shops, our day-to-day offline experiences.
While there aren’t any specific examples of how this trend manifests itself during the COVID situation, we are at least seeing some examples of brands and corporations speeding up the interfacing between offline and online, which may be a good start to push forth this trend. From major Hollywood blockbusters being released for online viewing faster than normal, to tech giants like Google and Facebook quickly updating/launching video chat functionalities to gain competitive edge, it shows brands can make necessary changes, if they want to.
What can my brand do with this in the #newnormal?
This advanced nature of this trend suggests that now’s as good a time as any to think about how your brand is really making sense of all that data to personalize not just messaging and comms, but also offline outreach/products and services that are relevant and pertinent to consumer needs (i.e. see above: Connections, Purposeful Design and 360-degrees Wellness), who may start to have expectations about brands embracing new technologies quicker, once the pandemic ends
We at Kadence are big advocates of brands creating their own futures, rather than try to predict it. Earlier in the year, before the whole pandemic went global, we brought together trend watching experts from across our global boutique to identify four key trends that we believe will define the next 12 months, inspiring innovation across Asia, the US and Europe, that we outlined in this report.
Sales & Marketing
Vital Strategies
Customer Intelligence Director