In a bustling market in Lagos, 26-year-old Aisha scrolls through Instagram, weighing whether to buy a locally made dress promoted by an influencer. The brand has no website, just a WhatsApp number for orders. With a few taps, she messages the seller, confirms the price, and arranges for cash-on-delivery. In markets like Nigeria, social commerce is leapfrogging traditional e-commerce. Shoppers don’t browse sleek e-commerce websites; they buy through Instagram DMs, Facebook groups, and TikTok live streams. The brands that fail to adapt to this reality risk missing out on the next billion consumers.
The numbers reveal an undeniable shift in global commerce. E-commerce sales are projected to grow from $5.13 trillion in 2022 to $8.09 trillion by 2028, driven by an influx of new consumers from high-growth regions. China and the United States still lead in online retail, contributing over $2.32 trillion in sales in 2023, but the real transformation is happening in emerging economies like India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the Philippines. Here, mobile and social commerce has become the foundation of digital retail.
For brands, the challenge is not just expansion; it’s reinvention. These new consumers don’t shop the way the first billion did. Over 80% research products online using search engines, social networks, and short-form videos, while 76% rely on social validation – likes, influencer recommendations, and customer reviews – before making a purchase. Yet, nearly half of the world’s largest consumer brands still lack a presence in these emerging markets, leaving a vast opportunity for those willing to rethink their approach.
But being present is not enough. The next billion shoppers favour social commerce over traditional e-commerce, engage with brands through messaging apps rather than websites, and expect seamless digital experiences across devices – even in regions where internet access is unreliable. They are also fiercely value-conscious, prioritising flexible payment methods like digital wallets and cash-on-delivery, options many global brands still fail to support.
Yet, many companies still operate with outdated digital commerce models built for Western markets. Global brands risk losing ground to more agile, regionally dominant competitors without rethinking payment systems, embedding social commerce, and optimising for mobile-first experiences.
The next billion shoppers aren’t waiting for brands to catch up. The only question is: Are brands ready for them?
Who Are the Next Billion Shoppers?
A 22-year-old university student buys skincare products in India through a WhatsApp group chat. In Nairobi, a young entrepreneur sells handmade jewellery on Facebook Marketplace, coordinating payments through mobile money. Across emerging markets, consumers bypass traditional e-commerce models, turning to social-first, mobile-driven shopping experiences that global brands have barely begun to tap into.
These next billion digital consumers – predominantly in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Egypt, and Kenya – are young, mobile-first, and digitally fluent. Internet access is expanding at an unprecedented pace, fueling a seismic shift in global commerce. Yet, many brands still fail to understand how these shoppers think and behave.
What sets them apart is how they shop. Unlike their Western counterparts, they favour informal, platform-driven commerce over conventional e-commerce sites. Social media, messaging apps, and peer-to-peer networks aren’t just places to connect; they are marketplaces, customer service hubs, and payment portals. A single Instagram post can trigger thousands of transactions, with sellers coordinating payments and deliveries through direct messages.
But logistical and economic challenges shape their habits. Cash-on-delivery remains dominant in many of these markets, and mobile data costs influence browsing behaviour. Poor infrastructure in rural areas means last-mile delivery is unreliable, forcing consumers to adapt. In response, brands leverage micro-fulfillment centers, regional payment apps, and social commerce strategies to bridge these gaps.
By 2030, these emerging digital consumers will drive global e-commerce revenues past $8 trillion. But brands that attempt a one-size-fits-all approach will fail. To succeed, companies must embed themselves into local digital ecosystems, rethink payment and fulfilment strategies, and embrace how these consumers already shop or risk becoming irrelevant in these emerging markets.
Digital Access Is No Longer a Barrier—But Trust and Infrastructure Are
On paper, the e-commerce revolution in emerging markets looks unstoppable. Smartphone penetration is soaring, digital payment systems are growing, and mobile data is cheaper than ever. But inside a small shop in Jakarta, 28-year-old Rizky still hesitates before clicking ‘buy’ on an Instagram ad.
“The products look good, but I’ve been scammed before,” he says, scrolling through the comments. “What if it never arrives? Or worse, what if it’s fake?”
Rizky’s concerns reflect a broader reality: while digital adoption is rising, trust remains one of the biggest barriers to e-commerce growth. Counterfeit goods, poor customer service, and unreliable delivery services have made many consumers sceptical. Even in fast-growing online markets, many prefer cash transactions or in-person shopping rather than risk a bad purchase.
Payments are another obstacle. While fintech solutions are expanding, millions of consumers remain unbanked or underbanked. In Nigeria and India, cash-on-delivery still dominates, yet many global brands continue pushing credit card-based payment systems. In a region where platforms like GCash in the Philippines, Paytm in India, and M-Pesa in Kenya have become standard, brands that fail to offer these options risk losing sales entirely.
Then there’s last-mile delivery, or the lack of it. In rural Indonesia and sub-Saharan Africa, poor infrastructure means packages take weeks to arrive – if they make it at all. Some brands have adapted, partnering with hyper-local delivery networks or setting up pickup hubs in community centres and convenience stores. Others still operate with rigid, one-size-fits-all supply chains that don’t work in these markets.
The lesson is clear: digital access alone won’t drive e-commerce success. Winning over the next billion shoppers requires more than just an internet connection; it demands localised payment solutions, seamless returns, and a serious investment in trust-building. Without these, even the best-designed digital strategies will fall flat.
How Brands Can Win the Next Billion Shoppers
In Manila, a small fashion retailer went from selling 50 dresses a month to 500 without launching a website. Instead, its business runs through Facebook Live sales and TikTok videos, where customers comment “Mine” to claim an item and settle payments via digital wallets. Across emerging markets, this is the new normal.
For global brands, the lesson is clear: scaling into high-growth digital markets requires far more than a translated website or a localised ad campaign. The next billion shoppers aren’t waiting for brands to find them on corporate e-commerce platforms – they’re already buying where they spend their time: social media, messaging apps, and peer-to-peer networks.
Yet, many Western brands still treat these channels as secondary sales tools rather than primary retail ecosystems. In Indonesia, Nigeria, and the Philippines, more than half of digital shoppers prefer buying through social media rather than traditional e-commerce websites. Brands that expect customers to visit standalone online stores are missing the point, as these shoppers expect brands to meet them where they already are.
That shift is forcing a rethink of engagement strategies. Live shopping, influencer-driven commerce, and peer recommendations have overtaken static product listings and website browsing. In China, where social commerce surpasses $500 billion annually, global brands have had to completely restructure their sales channels to compete with domestic players that integrate commerce seamlessly into entertainment. The same transformation is sweeping Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
But selling in these markets requires more than just showing up. AI-driven personalisation is now a competitive necessity, not a luxury. Machine learning models are helping brands optimise pricing, tailor product recommendations, and automate language localisation – yet many companies still fail to adjust their messaging, relying on generic campaigns that don’t resonate.
Language and cultural nuance can make or break a sale. While English is widely used in business, most consumers prefer to shop in their native language, engage with familiar imagery, and trust local influencers over foreign celebrity endorsements. Brands that get this right, like Coca-Cola and Unilever, see stronger conversion rates and long-term loyalty. Those that don’t risk alienating their audience before they even make it to checkout.
Simply put, what worked in established e-commerce markets won’t work here. Successful brands embed themselves in local digital ecosystems, embrace social-first shopping, and design their experiences around how consumers already buy, not how brands want them to buy.
Who Controls the Future of E-Commerce? Local Platforms Are Winning
When Indonesian beauty brand Somethinc wanted to expand online, it didn’t launch its website. Instead, it built its entire e-commerce strategy around Shopee and TikTok Shop, running daily flash sales and live-streaming product tutorials. The result? A 10x sales increase within months, driven entirely by social commerce and regional marketplaces.
Somethinc’s story isn’t unique. Across emerging markets, the next billion shoppers aren’t discovering products through branded websites; they’re buying from super apps, social media platforms, and dominant regional marketplaces. For global brands, winning these markets means playing by new rules where local giants, not Western e-commerce behemoths, set the terms of engagement.
The Power Shift: Regional Marketplaces vs. Global E-Commerce Giants
For years, companies like Amazon and Alibaba have defined global e-commerce. But that dominance is fading in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Platforms like Shopee, Jumia, and MercadoLibre have become the default shopping destinations, offering localised logistics, digital wallet integrations, and cash-on-delivery options that global brands struggle to replicate.
The numbers tell the story. In China, social commerce sales surpassed $500 billion, with platforms like Douyin (China’s TikTok), Xiaohongshu, and WeChat driving transactions entirely within their ecosystems. The same model is now spreading across Indonesia, Nigeria, and Mexico, where more than half of online shoppers prefer purchasing directly through social media.
Yet, many Western brands still treat these marketplaces as secondary sales channels rather than core business platforms. In India, Flipkart and Myntra dominate e-commerce for fashion and electronics, while Tokopedia in Indonesia has built a hyper-localised supply chain that global competitors can’t match. Simply listing products on these platforms is not enough – brands must actively invest in platform-specific strategies, native advertising, and localised engagement.
Why Direct-to-Consumer Models Are Struggling
For decades, DTC strategies helped brands build direct relationships with consumers. But DTC isn’t the future in emerging markets; it’s a limitation. Brands that cling to standalone e-commerce sites are losing relevance as shoppers expect frictionless transactions within the platforms they already use.
Even in Western markets, the shift is happening. TikTok Shop’s expansion into the U.S. and U.K. signals a major shift in commerce dynamics – one that mirrors the e-commerce revolution already unfolding in Asia and Africa. The next billion shoppers won’t be navigating company websites – they’ll be purchasing inside their favourite apps.
The message is clear: The future of e-commerce belongs to platforms that seamlessly blend social engagement, localised logistics, and frictionless transactions. The brands that adapt to this reality – rather than trying to control it – will be the ones that capture the next wave of global consumers.
How Global Brands Can Win in the Next Billion Market
In India, fast-fashion brand Ajio doesn’t just sell online; it has redefined mobile-first commerce. Instead of relying on traditional e-commerce websites, it built its entire sales strategy around WhatsApp-based shopping, integrating local payment options and live-chat support for consumers who prefer conversational commerce. The approach has been so successful that WhatsApp shopping now drives a significant share of its sales in smaller cities and rural areas.
For global brands, this is the future of e-commerce, requiring a radical shift in strategy. Companies that treat these new markets like extensions of the West will struggle. Those that understand the unique behaviours, expectations, and challenges of the next billion consumers will dominate.
Here’s how brands can compete effectively in these emerging digital economies:
- Market Research Can’t Be an Afterthought
Global strategies often fail because they assume all emerging markets behave similarly. Shopping habits, payment preferences, and brand trust vary drastically between Jakarta, Lagos, and Manila. Companies that skip deep, localised market research often launch with the wrong pricing models, payment options, and messaging that doesn’t resonate.
Many brands have learned this the hard way. Walmart’s struggles in India stemmed from misunderstanding local retail behaviours, forcing the company to pivot from a direct e-commerce approach to acquiring Flipkart. In contrast, brands like P&G and Coca-Cola invest heavily in country-specific consumer insights and have successfully built strong footholds in these markets.
- Think Beyond Translation – Create Market-Specific Storytelling
Localisation isn’t just about translating a global campaign into another language; it’s about understanding cultural nuances. Consumers in India, Indonesia, and Nigeria engage with storytelling differently than shoppers in New York or London.
Nike’s Southeast Asian marketing campaigns, for instance, don’t just feature global athletes. They include local sports icons and culturally relevant narratives, tapping into national pride and regional sports culture. This approach has driven significantly higher engagement than generic Western-focused messaging.
- Build for Mobile-First, Low-Bandwidth Markets
In many emerging economies, the mobile phone is the only device people use to access the internet. More than 90% of internet users in these markets are mobile-exclusive, and many are on low-bandwidth connections.
That’s why progressive web apps (PWAs) and lightweight mobile sites outperform heavy, Western-style e-commerce platforms. Companies like Jumia in Africa and Tokopedia in Indonesia have invested in fast-loading mobile interfaces, ensuring that even consumers in low-data regions can shop seamlessly.
- Payment and Fulfillment Must Be Localised
Credit cards are not the default in these markets. In India and the Philippines, cash-on-delivery remains a dominant payment method. In Kenya, M-Pesa is the standard for digital transactions. In China, QR-code-based WeChat Pay and Alipay drive nearly all online purchases.
Western brands that only integrate credit card checkouts exclude millions of potential customers. Companies that tailor their payment options—as Apple did by adding UPI payments in India—win consumer trust and adoption faster.
- Social Commerce Is Now the Default, Not an Add-On
Social media isn’t just a marketing tool in emerging economies; it is the storefront. More than half of digital shoppers in Indonesia and Nigeria buy directly through social platforms, often engaging with brands through WhatsApp, Instagram, or Facebook groups.
Live-stream shopping is also exploding in popularity. Approximately 50% of the country’s internet users in China utilised live commerce in 2023. This model is quickly expanding across Southeast Asia and Latin America. Brands that ignore this trend risk losing to local sellers who understand the nuances of peer-driven shopping.
- Logistics and Trust Are the Make-or-Break Factors
Selling a product is one thing. Getting it to the customer reliably is another.
Brands like Shopee and Jumia have gained an edge because they built extensive last-mile delivery networks, partnering with local couriers, pickup hubs, and even motorcycle taxi fleets to ensure orders arrive on time. Amazon, by contrast, struggled in markets like India because it initially relied on its Western fulfilment model rather than adapting to local infrastructure.
Trust is also a challenge. Consumers rely heavily on peer reviews and seller reputations before purchasing in markets with high counterfeit product risks. That’s why platforms like Tokopedia and Shopee have built-in buyer protection policies, a feature that global brands must adopt to compete.
The Time to Adapt Is Now
The next billion shoppers are reshaping digital commerce faster than most global brands can keep up. But this shift isn’t just about adding new markets to existing playbooks. It requires a fundamental change in how brands operate, engage, and build trust.
The companies that embed themselves into local digital ecosystems rethink their approach to payments and fulfilment and leverage social commerce as a primary – not secondary – strategy that will lead the next era of global retail. The rest? They’ll be playing catch-up.
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