Consumer sentiment in the US took a sharp downturn in the first quarter of 2025, signalling growing anxiety about the economy as inflation fears and geopolitical tensions weigh heavily on households.
The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, down from 57 in March, marking the lowest since June 2022. Inflation expectations surged to a 44-year high of 6.7%, deepening concerns about a potential recession. As fears of stagnant economic growth and rising costs persist, US households are not only deferring big-ticket purchases but are also shifting their spending habits. A 2024 survey by McKinsey found that 57% of consumers plan to postpone purchases of cars, electronics, and home appliances due to economic uncertainty. This behaviour reflects a broader shift in consumer priorities, where many opt to save for security rather than indulge in discretionary purchases.
In addition, more consumers are actively reconsidering their brand choices. According to Ipsos, one in four Americans have boycotted a brand in the past year over political or ethical reasons, signalling a more value-driven approach to spending. This trend underscores a more selective approach, with households prioritising purchases that align with personal values and long-term needs.
The Shift in Spending Behaviour Globally
Globally, households are tightening their belts in response to growing financial uncertainty. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly in the US and Europe, as evidenced by rising savings rates. In the US, savings deposits increased by 5.4% in 2024, according to major US banks, while credit card usage declined. Meanwhile, Europe’s savings rate surged to 13.5% in Q4 2024, up from 10.7% in 2023, indicating that consumers are prioritising savings over spending.
Retail sectors are feeling the impact of this shift. High-ticket purchases, such as luxury goods and cars, are down across key markets as consumers focus on essentials and future security. Reports from the European Central Bank show a marked decline in discretionary spending, echoing similar trends in the US.
While this cautious approach stems from immediate financial strain and long-term economic uncertainty, the shift is expected to shape the global economy in the coming months. Companies that can adapt – offering products aligned with consumer values, health, and sustainability – will be well-positioned to thrive in this evolving market.
Case Study: Frasers Group’s Strategic Store Closures Amid Economic Uncertainty
Image credit: X
Background:
Frasers Group, a major UK retailer owning brands like Sports Direct and House of Fraser, has faced challenges due to declining consumer confidence and increased operational costs. In response, the company has closed several stores, including its flagship, House of Fraser in Bath, which had been operating for over 200 years.
Actions Taken:
Frasers Group has been consolidating its physical retail presence, focusing on high-performing locations and expanding its online offerings. The company has also been investing in its luxury segment, with CEO Michael Murray expressing confidence in a rebound in demand for premium goods.
Outcome:
While facing short-term challenges, Frasers Group aims to strengthen its market position by streamlining operations and capitalising on the anticipated recovery in luxury retail.
The Impact on Financial Institutions and Retailers
As consumer behaviour shifts toward savings and caution, financial institutions and retailers feel the effects. Banks have reported an uptick in deposits, while credit card usage has decreased, signalling a change in how consumers manage their finances in uncertain times.
In the US, savings rates have steadily increased over recent years as consumers prioritise financial security. The Federal Reserve’s 2024 Financial Stability Report shows that household savings rates have remained elevated, with a marked preference for more liquid assets. This shift in consumer behaviour is attributed to ongoing economic uncertainties and the rising cost of living. Meanwhile, credit card debt, though still growing, has been growing at a slower pace compared to the previous year, with the Federal Reserve noting in its 2024 Report on Household Debt and Credit that credit card balances increased by 6.4% in 2023, slower than previous years’ growth. This suggests consumers are becoming more cautious with discretionary spending, opting to save more and use credit less.
Retailers are adjusting to these changing dynamics. For many brands, especially those in luxury and non-essential goods markets, the slowdown in spending has forced a reevaluation of strategies. High-end brands, which have long relied on the discretionary spending of affluent consumers, are facing challenges as more shoppers scale back on big-ticket purchases.
On the other hand, retailers in the wellness, health, and essential goods sectors benefit from this shift. A January 2024 McKinsey & Company report highlights that 56% of Gen Z consumers in the US consider fitness and wellness a “very high priority,” reflecting a continued commitment to spending on health-related products and services. McKinsey estimates that the global wellness market, valued at over $1.8 trillion, continues to grow at 5-10% annually, with significant demand for wellness products in emerging markets.
For financial institutions, the challenge lies in balancing the growing demand for savings accounts and low-risk investments with the need to provide consumer credit options. As fewer people rely on credit cards, many banks are exploring alternative forms of credit, such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, which allow consumers to make purchases without accumulating high-interest debt. While BNPL services have gained popularity, there are concerns about their long-term sustainability and the potential for increased consumer debt.
Ultimately, the growing trend toward saving and cautious spending drives significant shifts in the financial services and retail sectors. Companies that can adapt to these changes – offering value, flexibility, and products aligned with consumers’ evolving needs – will be well-positioned to thrive in the coming months.
How Brands are Adapting Strategies in Response to Consumer Behaviour Shifts
In response to the evolving consumer market, companies are implementing various strategies to align with changing preferences and economic conditions:
- Enhanced Digital Engagement: Retailers use digital platforms to offer personalised shopping experiences. This includes leveraging data analytics to understand consumer behaviour and tailoring marketing efforts accordingly.
- Flexible Pricing and Promotions: Companies are introducing flexible pricing models and targeted promotions to address price sensitivity. This approach aims to maintain customer loyalty while accommodating budget-conscious consumers.
- Product Innovation and Diversification: Brands diversify their offerings to meet consumers’ evolving demands. This includes introducing new product lines that align with current trends, such as wellness-focused or sustainable products.
The Road Ahead: Implications for Economic Growth
The trend toward saving and cautious spending presents a complex economic landscape. While rising savings rates provide financial security for households, the slowdown in consumer spending could stall short-term economic growth. In Q1 2024, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew just 1.3%, down sharply from 3.4% in Q4 2023. This slowdown reflects persistent inflationary pressures.
As discretionary spending contracts, sectors dependent on non-essential purchases, such as luxury goods and travel, face significant challenges. Bain & Company reports that global luxury market growth slowed to 3% in 2024, a stark decline from double-digit growth in previous years.
However, wellness, health products, and essential goods continue to see strong demand, driven by consumer interest in well-being and sustainability.
As consumer caution impacts overall economic activity, particularly in markets reliant on consumption-driven growth, policymakers and brands must adapt. Encouraging spending on wellness and essential goods, while promoting savings, could help stabilise growth. Companies that strategically align with these consumer priorities—through innovation, targeted marketing, and flexible pricing – will be better positioned to thrive despite economic uncertainty.
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