The polls have failed again. The result of the 2020 US Presidential election has not even been confirmed, and there are various news sources claiming that the polling companies have got it all wrong, again. Polls predicted that Biden would win various states comfortably. They either picked the wrong winner, or the race was far, far closer than the polls suggested. It was not supposed to be like this. After the 2016 disasters of Brexit and Trump winning defied the predictions from polling companies – there was supposed to be change – more accuracy in how data is collected and norms calculated.

Political polling is perhaps one of the more visible uses of market research for the average consumer. Polling is a subset of market research and there is a danger that market research as an industry receives negative association from yet another public failing. The Atlantic has published an interesting piece on the ‘disaster’ of the polls and highlights 2 potential arguments to the polls results – that is also the argument for market research as a whole:

“First, many pollsters insist that their polls are snapshots, not predictors. If their snapshots are so far off, though, where were they aiming the lens? Why bother?”

“Second, the analysts will protest that they’re only as good as the polls, but who cares? Whatever the instructions on the bottle, the public uses opinion polls to try to understand what happens. If the polls and their analysts don’t offer the service that customers are seeking, they’re doomed.”

This is similar to the argument that I have heard a few times from senior stakeholders in large companies. “Steve Jobs didn’t use research, why do we need a research company”?

Market research is critical in the uncertain world we live in now. And the mistake that people are making when commenting on the accuracy of the polls, is the same mistake that people make in business. The expectation that there is one data point or one piece of research that will predict the future.

Looking back at the polls, whether a particular result has 51% Biden, or 49%, is not as important as understanding that there is a clear divide. Digging down to uncover the reason for the divide and looking for ideas as to how to change perceptions is what should be most meaningful for anyone looking to illicit change.

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Whilst commenting on the Brexit result (and the failure of the polls) in 2016, I commented that research should be used for Inspiration, Measurement or Predictions – but not by asking for a single score! Instead, market research should be looked at the same way that you have a golf coach, or a piano tutor. You are looking to improve your skills over a period of time, by having someone provide you with the ideas and confidence to get better. Market research, at its best, draws upon multiple sources. Some primary, some secondary, some direct, some passive. What you need is the understanding of what is going on – not just a snapshot.

In the corporate world, marketing has traditionally been the function that ‘owns’ the researchers. How well CMOs can ensure their products and services are relevant to their customer justifies the work they are doing.  The future of market research needs to look more holistically. Marketeers should look to understand trends that are happening. This could mean getting insights from other industries or other markets. Market research is an ever changing, but every relevant industry. Right now, marketeers and decision makers can look at mobile applications, AI analyzed digital diaries, big data and text analytics to get an insight into consumer needs and habits. Understanding consumers has never had as many possibilities as it does today. The skill of the researcher, and the goal of any research agency is to bring together the best people, with the best tools, to advance an idea or to provide confidence.

Understanding the underlying situation is critical for decision makers to be able to create a program of change. Whoever wins the US election, the hope is that they understand the patterns and the needs of the nation to create change. For the market research industry – the focus must be on showcasing the story of change – and encouraging all to follow.

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Since the onset of the pandemic we’ve been working with Bloomberg to understand the priorities, actions and attitudes of business decision makers across APAC. Take a look at the infographic for the key insights from our latest wave including:

  • 69% of companies foresee adopting a hybrid model post-pandemic with a mix of in-office and work-from-home
  • Yet of the surveyed companies only 4% will no longer keep a physical office
  • The pandemic has placed greater attention on sustainability with 67% believing that COVID-19 has increased the importance of green / environment protection
Infographic explaining the shift in business decision makers' priorities

We’ve been working with Bloomberg to understand the priorities, actions and attitudes of business decision makers across APAC as the pandemic progresses. In the second of five waves, we explore attitudes towards travel, media consumption patterns and brands.

Take a look at the infographic for the key insights including:

  • 7 in 10 decision makers say their companies are restricting travel, up by 18% from the last wave in May
  • In 1 in 4 organisations, employees are given the flexibility to work from home.
  • 57% are looking for brands that are customer-focused and are flexible enough to accommodate their rapidly changing needs
"Not Business As Usual" Infographic
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As a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns, education institutions across the globe have faced a myriad of challenges, including the move to distance learning and finding new ways to support pupils. Students have also had to adapt with the support of an in-person learning environment

Now that some educational institutions are emerging from the pandemic, it will be important not just to address short term needs but also to identify innovations that can be adopted to improve student learning in the long run.

This piece explores three key challenges to address in the short term but also considers the long-term implications of what these new changes may bring. The 3 themes we’ll be looking at are:

  1. The role of a “classroom” and going beyond physical spaces
  2. Rethinking the way we share knowledge
  3. Addressing current inequalities and what educators can do to ensure the future success of students

Where is the classroom?

Short-term trends

As governments and educational institutions make decisions on when and how to reopen schools, health and safety is naturally front of mind. Some schools have opened with strict checking procedures in place. In Shanghai, for instance, students are required to enter the school building via a thermal scanner and there are multiple posters in place highlighting the measures in place to tackle coronavirus. In other schools, remote learning is still continuing as only limited numbers of pupils return. Schools in New South Wales, Australia, for example, have re-opened but are only allowing students to attend one day a week on a staggered basis. Whatever the approach, the priority continues to be safeguarding people’s wellbeing and schools will observe and learn from countries that are practicing safe re-opening procedures.

Long-term trends

However, the COVID crisis has also demonstrated that classrooms are not the only places where education can take place. The pandemic has highlighted that learning can take place at any time, anywhere and in any way. It’s clear that the opportunities offered by digital capabilities will go well beyond its temporarily use during the crisis.

Technology can enable teachers and students to access massive amounts of digital resources, most of which are free to use. Examples from other countries have also shown that the delivery of information through various means – TV, online, mobile – can work to help engage students. What’s more, AI and digital technology are now able to capture data to measure students’ progress so that learning can be adjusted based on ongoing assessments rather than through high stakes exams.

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Rethinking Knowledge Sharing

Short-term trends

Just as students are adjusting to distance learning, most teachers are also new to teaching online and have had to quickly adapt their lessons to an online format that keeps pupils engaged.

But teachers don’t just need the technological tools to facilitate online learning. They need resources to help enhance their teaching practice. A number of initiatives have sprung up around the world to facilitate this. In South Korea, the Education and Research Information Service offers an online platform to facilitate the sharing of materials created by teachers and in the United Arab Emirates, the Ministry of Education invited over 40,000 teachers to take part in a ‘Be an online tutor in 24 hours’ course. Global organizations such as the Khan Academy, TEDed, Google Arts & Culture are also continually providing relevant education resources for students and teachers.

Long-term trends

In the long-term, we may see a new form of teaching emerging. In a world where students can access to knowledge through a few clicks, educators will need to review and potentially redefine their role in the classroom.

The emphasis should be not only on the delivery of content but also on generating engagement. Educators need to learn to create a positive experience within a digital context – one that is more interactive and engaging. One organisation leading the way on this is Singapore’s SIT University, which has created training materials for lecturers to provide online learning. The topics covered how to create narrated slides, how to run effective live streaming classes, how to design alternative assessments, and the use of online proctoring tools for assessments.

Addressing current inequalities and what educators can do to ensure the future success of students

Short-term trends

While technology has helped many students continue their education at home, data from UNESCO has found that in other ways, it has exacerbated the digital divide. Half of all students do not have access to a computer and more than 40% have no internet access at home.

Students living in rural areas, low-income households, students with special needs and those living in less developed areas face issues with a lack of resources including not having the technology needed for remote learning.

Governments, private companies, and educational institutions need to be able to work in partnership to ensure that needs of all students are met. Success stories from around the world can provide inspiration. In France, the University of Strasbourg identified students whose lack of resources jeopardised their ability to continue their education, setting up an Emergency Fund and distributing more than a hundred computers to students in need. China offered mobile data packages, telecom subsidies and repurposed some of the state-run television channel to air lesson plans for K–12 education in remote regions. Italy put together an €85 million Euro package to support distance learning for 8.5 million students and improve connectivity in isolated areas.

Long-term trends

While COVID-19 has fast-tracked the need to acquire digital skills, we also cannot forget the education students will need to prepare them for the workplace of the future.  

As a result of the pandemic, the demand for certain jobs and specialities will decline, whilst otherareas come to the fore. Educational institutions need to be flexible enough to adapt their curriculum and resources to meet students’ and workforces’ changing needs.

There will continue to be a need to train people in emerging digital skills but learners will also need “non-automatable” skills. According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey, “a wide range of occupations will require a higher degree of cognitive abilities — such as creativity, logical reasoning and problem sensitivity — as part of their core skill set.” Institutions who more readily recognise and adapt their curriculum and resources to meet these needs are more likely to thrive moving forwards.

The automotive industry has been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. Cars have lain dormant in driveways for months as a result of lockdowns across the world, and economic shutdowns hit supply chains, with reports of some manufacturers even resorting to flying parts across the world in suitcases.

But as consumers emerge into a ‘new normal’, what does this mean for the automotive industry? What are the trends to watch – both in the short and the long-term? 

In this article, our auto experts across the UK, Thailand and Indonesia, Bianca Abulafia, Digo Alanda and Kajornkiat Kiatsunthorn explore 3 key areas:

  1. Changing purchase patterns
  2. The future of electric
  3. The digital path to purchase

Changing purchase patterns

Short term

In the short-term, we expect to see growth in the second hand and luxury end of the market especially.

The pandemic has resulted in a renewed focus on the car as hygiene concerns have come to the fore. This has resulted in those that have previously shunned car ownership such as urbanites and young people re-evaluating their stance. In the US, a cars.com study showed that 20% of people who don’t own a car are thinking of buying one, and this figure rises when we hone in on young people. A recent global Capgemini survey of under 35s shows that 45% are considering buying a car and this is highest in countries that have been hardest hit by the pandemic.

Graph - percentage of potential buyers under 35 in each country
Source: COVID-19 and the automotive consumer, Capgeminia landscape

We have talked about the emergence of “revenge buying” in other sectors, and we expect this to manifest in the automotive industry within the second-hand market as a more affordable option for younger buyers. “Revenge buying” is also relevant at the luxury end of the market. As a result of being able to save, the budget of some affluent buyers has increased, meaning that they’re now able to trade up. Volvo’s Chief Executive notes this has happened in China, where the company has seen a 20% increase in sales compared to 2019. “People are really tired of sitting at home locked and they really want to go out and buy.” Outside of this, we expect sales to suffer, with existing car owners putting off purchases in the midst of economic instability.

Long-term

Looking at the long-term impact, it will take some time until car sales return to pre-COVID levels.  An ING report, looks back to the 2008 financial crisis for indicators, highlighting that it took 11 months for vehicle sales to recover in this instance. But if we consider that this pandemic has brought lifestyle and behavioural changes, in addition to economic instability, it’s much harder to predict.

In the long-term, will we see a permanent shift towards home working that encourages people to move out of urban centres, necessitating the need for a car? Will increased domestic tourism result in a desire to have access to a car for longer trips – ushering in an opportunity for shared ownership of vehicles? The automotive industry doesn’t exist in a vacuum and it will be vital for auto manufacturers to observe the broad trends to understand where they can play a role.

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The digital path to purchase

Short-term

Car manufacturers have had to rapidly adapt to a new sales environment, as they seek to comply with social distancing measures and meet the needs of the more cautious shopper. Capgemini’s COVID-19 and The Automotive Consumer report indicates that 46% of consumers want to minimise visits to dealerships to compare offers, instead preferring to do this online. We’ve seen lots of innovative responses to this. In China, for instance, Volkswagen has trained 70,000 employees to communicate with customers online, even livestreaming from dealerships via TikTok and Kuaishou.

Long-term

In the long-term, we only expect this to continue. The impact of coronavirus has acted as a catalyst for the digital transformation of many industries, sparking changes in consumer behaviour that were thought to take years. Automotive will be no exception as people seek the convenience that they’re experiencing in their interactions with other brands and industries. This will be particularly important in the research phase but we believe it will also extend to online purchase and home delivery, with a recent Think with Google survey finding that 18% of people would buy a vehicle sooner if there was an online purchase option. The desire for convenience could also impact the after sales experience with servicing being carried out at home. 

The future of electric

Short-term

In the immediate term, economic instability, plus the appeal of lower oil prices, could dissuade car buyers from making the move to electric. However, we don’t expect this to last long, with any savings from oil prices likely to be temporary, and not significant enough in the long-term to fundamentally influence decisions. 

One area to watch is other electric transportation options beyond the car – such as scooters and bikes. As people avoid public transport and seek other routes around the city, governments are having to radically rethink how they can support this. The UK has announced that improvements in cycling infrastructure and trials to allow rented e-scooters on the streets have been fast-tracked, which could encourage people to start exploring electric bikes and scooters as alternative options for commuting.  Increased familiarity with electric powered means of transportation could result in a greater adoption of motorbikes or cars.

Long-term

When we look at the long-term view, we don’t expect the shift towards electric to be significantly impacted. From the canals in Venice being clear enough to see the fish to Nasa satellite images showing the dramatic drop into pollution levels in China, the upsides of the lockdown on the environment have been well documented – with many consumers acknowledging benefits of this on their quality of life. 

This could influence purchase behaviours in the longer term, with consumers wanting to do their bit for the environment at the point at which economic conditions become more favourable for them to do so. But more significantly, changing consumer sentiment towards the environment is also likely to increase pressure on governments to bolster schemes to incentivise electric car ownership, making them a more financially attractive proposition to car buyers. In fact, this is something that has already happened in China in the wake of the pandemic, with some cities announcing subsidies for new electric vehicles, and others upping their investment in the associated infrastructure.

We also shouldn’t forget the status symbol factor, particularly in the luxury segment. Our research has shown that owning an electric car represents a new way to demonstrate wealth and status, and we don’t see this diminishing any time soon.

When we look the impact of COVID-19 on the media industry it’s a mixed picture. Whilst some areas, like video streaming services, have thrived as a result of increased time at home, others have come to a complete standstill, such as OOH advertising and cinema. But which trends in media will persist?

In this article we explore 3 key areas of the media landscape:

  1. Linear TV
  2. Streaming services
  3. Advertising

The role of linear TV

Short-term changes

As people have been forced to spend time at home and routines have been upended, viewing of linear television has enjoyed a resurgence. According to the BBC, viewers were watching 44% more linear channels in May compared to this time last year, rising to 67% for young people. A trend that flies in the face of pre-pandemic viewing behaviour.

The rise of linear television in this period should really come as no surprise. It’s allowing for shared moments at a time when human connection is in short supply. Thinkbox observed a 30% increase in shared viewing in this period.

Content preferences have also shifted, reflecting the pandemic situation, with programmes that allow for nostalgia and escapism proving popular with viewers. 

Long-term trends

We expect the rise of linear TV to be short-lived. As a direct response to the lockdown, it’s unlikely that this behaviour will persist as the pandemic subsides. As economies reopen, and consumers given more freedom to socialise, we expect to see linear TV consumption patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, as the long-term trends we’ve seen towards VOD and SVOD continuing.

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Streaming

Short-term changes

Streaming providers have been one of few beneficiaries of the COVID-19 crisis. With more time on their hands at home, people are turning to paid online streaming services – and some for the very first time. A survey for the Consumer Technology Association carried out in March found that 26% of US consumers are using video streaming services for the first time. A combination of new users like these, and others that have added to their existing subscriptions are creating big returns for streaming giants. In the first quarter, Netflix more than doubled the number of new subscribers it had expected. Disney Plus is another success story. Just 8 months after launch, it has over 54 million subscribers globally. This puts it in touching distance of its 2024 target, a whole 4 years early.   

Medium and long term

In the long-term, it’s difficult to predict exactly how streaming will fare. One school of thought is that as the economic impact of the crisis hits consumers will re-evaluate their discretionary spending, and cut back, which could see subscriber numbers fall, particularly amongst those with multiple subscriptions.

Others argue that as consumers tighten the purse strings, they’ll be scaling back on more significant purchases. This could mean that spend on streaming services will be protected as a worthwhile investment, particularly if the focus on the home remains, with working from home continuing in the long term.

One trend that we expect to remain is the emphasis on shared viewing on demand. We’ve seen streaming providers innovating to meet this need with features like Netflix Party, that allow users in different locations to synchronise playback and communicate via a group chat. Meeting the desire for shared experiences but enabling different audiences in one household to watch what they like, we see this trend being important in future.

Another development to watch out in the medium-term is the future of film. During the pandemic Universal Pictures made some of its film releases available on demand on Comcast, Sky, Apple and Amazon for a one-off fee. With the emphasis on value for money and continued social distancing, will this be an attractive option to consumers in the medium, and a way to offset lost revenues from cinemas?

Advertising

Short term

The drop in advertising spending during the pandemic has been well documented. According to a report from Publicis, Q1 ad spend was down 15% in China and 9% across Europe, as companies sought to cut costs and postpone campaigns. And with this continuing in Q2 and into the second half of the year, the World Federation of Advertisers predicting a 31% decrease in investments across 2020.

In response to the pandemic the tone of ads has changed too, with many brands emphasising their contribution to the relief effort or how they’re supporting customers in this difficult time. In the short-term, we can’t expect an immediate return to pre-pandemic marketing strategies. Our recent research Brands Exposed research, with 4,000 consumers across 10 countries found that levels of worry around the pandemic influence how consumers respond to ads, with overt sales messaging being rejected by those that are most worried, in favour of more reassuring advertising. This indicates that in the short-term, brands will need to make a concerted effort to understand the sentiment of their customer base and position their ads accordingly.

Medium to long-term

Advertising has always had to shift in response to behavioural changes, and this will be no exception. A recent Goldman Sachs report predicts that “the crisis will only accelerate the secular shift in advertising budgets towards digital.”

In the medium and long-term, we expect to see brands funnelling more money into digital advertising, reflecting the increase in time that consumers are spending on digital channels. Social media usage is up 21% globally. It’s likely that advertisers will also look to move ad spend towards ad supported streaming services, at the expense of TV.

In the long-run, we also expect to brands continuing to place a sustained importance on responsibility and honesty, in response to rising consumer expectations, as suggested by our Brands Exposed research.